How Trump’s Return to the White House Could Reshape the Trucking Industry

With Donald Trump returning to the White House, the transportation and trucking industries are preparing for potential shifts in policies that could dramatically impact their operations. Trump’s second term brings the possibility of reduced environmental regulations and increased tariffs on imports, both of which could influence costs, operations, and growth within the trucking sector. Here’s a deep dive into what the trucking industry might expect from the upcoming administration.

1. Reduced Environmental Regulations

One of the most anticipated policy shifts is a potential rollback on emissions regulations introduced under the Biden administration. These standards, including the Phase 3 heavy-duty greenhouse gas (GHG3) regulations, have faced criticism from parts of the trucking industry due to their significant impact on operating costs and equipment requirements.

During Trump’s first term, his administration rolled back multiple environmental protections, including vehicle emissions standards and clean energy rules, while actively contesting California’s stricter emissions regulations. The trucking industry anticipates a similar approach this term, with Trump already indicating he intends to dismantle Biden-era environmental policies.

If the administration weakens or removes emissions requirements, the trucking industry could see a reduction in equipment costs and operational expenses. While lower standards would ease the financial burden on fleets, there are broader environmental and public health considerations. Emissions standards aim to improve air quality and reduce greenhouse gases, but they also raise costs for fleets by requiring expensive, eco-friendly equipment. The Clean Freight Coalition, a group opposing the GHG3 standards, estimates that heavy-duty electrification efforts alone could cost the industry upwards of $1 trillion.

Industry Reaction

Many industry leaders have voiced support for easing emissions restrictions. American Trucking Associations (ATA) President Chris Spear congratulated Trump on his re-election, stressing the importance of common-sense policies that align with the industry’s operational realities. "President Trump made trucking a priority throughout his first term and partnered with us to enact policies that strengthened the supply chain, grew the economy, and delivered for all Americans," Spear said. He urged the administration to replace the current electric-truck rule with more realistic emissions standards.

Challenges Ahead

The momentum toward trucking electrification may not vanish altogether, as Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) like Volvo are still committed to long-term sustainability goals. Many global truck manufacturers have already aligned their North American operations with the Paris Climate Accords, aiming for carbon neutrality by 2040. Additionally, even if federal regulations are relaxed, states with stricter emissions policies—such as California—could enforce their own standards, which other states might adopt.

Legal and Legislative Hurdles

It’s worth noting that any attempt to roll back environmental regulations may face legal and political challenges. Congressional resistance and potential lawsuits could delay or prevent certain rollbacks. If federal standards are weakened but states maintain their authority to set stricter emissions policies, trucking companies operating across multiple states could face a complex regulatory landscape.

2. Increased Tariffs to Support Domestic Freight

On the campaign trail, Trump advocated for substantial tariffs on imported goods. He proposed a 10-20% tariff on all imports, a tariff over 60% on Chinese imports, and a 100% tariff on cars imported from Mexico. While the practicality and legality of such sweeping tariffs are uncertain, any increase in import tariffs could have notable consequences for the trucking industry.

Impact on Domestic Freight

Increased tariffs on imports generally drive up the cost of foreign goods, making domestic production and consumption more attractive. This shift could potentially boost domestic freight demand, as more companies source products from within the country rather than relying on foreign imports. As a result, trucking companies might see an uptick in freight volumes, particularly in sectors tied to manufacturing and agriculture.

Challenges with Tariff Implementation

However, implementing tariffs on such a large scale is likely to encounter legal and legislative obstacles. While the president does have authority to impose tariffs in certain contexts, actions of this scale could face pushback from Congress, and lawsuits could arise, questioning the limits of executive power on trade policies. Additionally, industries that rely heavily on imports could feel financial strain, potentially creating economic ripple effects that might indirectly impact freight demand in other areas.

Industry Position on Tariffs

The trucking industry may support measures that lead to increased domestic freight volume, but the benefits of these tariffs are far from guaranteed. Higher costs on imported goods could lead to inflationary pressure, raising operational costs for carriers, especially those reliant on imported equipment, parts, and materials. The impact of tariffs on the broader economy—and, by extension, on the demand for freight—will be something the industry will watch closely.

3. The Bigger Picture for Trucking Electrification

Despite Trump’s anticipated efforts to roll back emissions standards, the push toward electrification in trucking is already in motion. Several leading OEMs in the trucking sector, such as Volvo and Daimler, have committed to substantial investments in electric trucks. This is driven partly by global climate commitments and partly by consumer demand for sustainable options. Five of the seven major over-the-road truck OEMs are part of European-based companies that have committed to the Paris Agreement, indicating that some level of electrification is likely to continue, regardless of U.S. policy changes.

If Trump’s administration does reduce federal emissions regulations but fails to weaken California's regulatory authority, states could adopt California Air Resources Board (CARB) regulations, such as the Advanced Clean Trucks (ACT) rule. This could create a patchwork of regulations across states, complicating compliance for nationwide carriers and potentially leading to a tiered market in which compliance is regionally based.

Michael Young, Daimler Truck North America's product marketing manager, has noted the uncertainty surrounding emissions regulations: “Should the administration change, we’re likely to see changes on the 2027 [EPA and GHG emissions] rules… But if we do see the administration change, we could also see more states rushing to adopt some of the different [ACT, ACF] rules. So, what route is better is a toss-up.”

The Road Ahead: Key Takeaways for the Trucking Industry

As Trump prepares to take office, the trucking industry will be closely monitoring his administration’s approach to regulatory rollbacks and trade policies. Key factors to watch include:

- Environmental Regulations: Potential rollbacks could lower operational costs for fleets, but state-level regulations and OEM commitments to electrification will continue to drive change.

- Tariffs and Domestic Freight: Increased tariffs could lead to a shift toward domestic production, benefiting freight demand but also creating economic challenges.

- Sustainability Commitments: Even with relaxed federal standards, many OEMs and states are likely to continue pushing for cleaner technologies and practices.

The trucking industry stands at a crossroads, with potential regulatory and economic shifts on the horizon. How Trump’s administration navigates these complexities will shape the industry’s future in significant ways, from cost structures and operational efficiency to the long-term trajectory of trucking electrification.

Stay tuned to our blog for more insights on how policy changes may impact trucking, and read our in-depth article on emissions regulations for fleets!